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The end of the five China reserves fall October 3 trillion and 520 billion dollar reserves

Release time: 2015-12-12
Browsing times: 28

The trade surplus is increasing, and the willingness to exchange will reduce the impact of foreign exchange reserves.

Recently, the people's Bank of China released data show that in October the size of China's foreign exchange reserves of $.

Although the foreign exchange reserves in October is only a slight increase, but more attention. China's foreign exchange reserves in June 2014 reached a peak value of US $, has been in a downward trend. At the end of last year, the balance of foreign exchange reserves amounted to $12, $9 at the end of last year, to $3 at the end of this year. August of this year, it is a larger decline of $93 billion 900 million. However, foreign exchange reserves continued to decline to $September, but the decline has narrowed compared to August.

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Why, then, in October, foreign exchange reserves will increase?

On the one hand, in October, China's import and export value of yuan, down 9%, a decline of 0.2 percentage point increase over the previous month. Among them, the export of 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.6%, decline expand by 2.5 percentage points; import 8331.4 billion yuan, down 16% decline narrowed 1.7 percentage points, has been continuous 12 months is negative; surplus in trade in goods 3932.2 billion yuan, expand 40.2%.

Affected by weak external demand and trade goods price decline and other factors, in October China's exports fell to expand. At the same time, commodity prices continued to decline, the decline in the import side of the larger, so the trade surplus is also increasing, the trade surplus for foreign exchange reserves, it is to provide a positive contribution." China Financial Futures Exchange chief macroeconomic researcher Zhao Qingming said.

Data show that in September, China's international balance of payments caliber of international goods and services trade income of 13049 yuan, spending 11029 yuan, a surplus of 202 billion 100 million yuan. Among them, the goods trade surplus of 346 billion 400 million yuan, trade deficit of 144 billion 400 million yuan service. Zhao Qingming, although the October data has not been fully released, but from the point of view of the existing situation, compared to September, October often project due to the growth of exports, expanding trade surplus in goods, if the service trade deficit unchanged, often account surplus should actually be is in great changes, and promote the growth of foreign exchange reserves.

On the other hand, since September, the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable, and even rise. November 2nd, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose sharply, the median price of 6.3154, compared with the previous trading day up 341 basis points, a record nearly 3 months since a new high.

In the RMB exchange rate stable, businesses and individual residents holding sinks, the purchase of foreign exchange will decline, "the most obvious is the hall of a bank queuing purchase of foreign exchange by the people in the reduction, resulting in a corresponding increase in foreign exchange reserves." Zhao Qingming said.

Future foreign exchange reserves will not be greatly increased or reduced

How to look at the rebound in foreign exchange reserves in the fall after a few months? Does it mean that there is a turning point?

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications said that foreign exchange reserves and a country's international balance of payments is relatively large, generally shall see the half or data is a year long cycle, and in the short term impact factors of changes in the international balance of payments is complex, probably because of some income, expenditure increase, affecting the international balance of payments of the great changes.

For the future trend of foreign exchange reserves, Lian Ping believes that the overall trend is slight fluctuations in reducing. China has adopted a prudent monetary policy, liquidity is abundant, strong capital output power, Chinese companies continue to invest abroad, and the inflow of capital growth is relatively flat, there will not be a substantial increase.

Zhao Qingming said that whether the increase or decrease in foreign exchange reserves, will be relatively small amount, there will not be a substantial increase, a substantial reduction of the situation. "In fact, changes in foreign exchange reserves or to see the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate."

In the market for the expected devaluation of the RMB exchange rate situation, the willingness of individuals and enterprises will greatly improve the exchange rate, the foreign exchange market may be a demand gap, making the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have decreased. Similarly, when the market for the RMB exchange rate agreement, residents and businesses will be willing to drop the exchange rate, choose to sell foreign exchange, and then there may be a supply gap, had to buy foreign exchange reserves.


At present, zhaoqingming think, although affected by the large trade surplus, but businesses and individuals still have some willingness to support exchange, under the comprehensive function of various factors, in foreign exchange reserves in the future if it continues to increase, amplitude is not too large.

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