The overall stabilization of the economy in 2016, but downward pressure is still in the beginning of October, the real estate deal to strictly enforce the residents of long-term loans downward trend, but the PPP project will support the implementation of long-term loan demand in enterprises. In addition, affected by regulatory changes, foreign exchange decline or will shrink.
A number of research institutions predict that in 2016 the new credit is expected to be about 700 billion yuan, the size of the new credit will be around 12 trillion yuan in the year, in addition, is expected in 2017 the size of the new credit in about $13 trillion.
上个月预计约7000亿
Last month is expected to be about 700 billion
证券时报记者调查发现，各大研究机构对去年12月份新增信贷规模的预测区别较小，主要落于6000~7000亿元之间。据不完全统计，均值为6714亿元。其中，招商证券(16.610,-0.04,-0.24%)、华泰证券宏观团队、北大经济研究所、兴业研究均预计12月份新增信贷为7000亿元。
Securities Times reporter survey found that the major research institutions in December last year, the difference between the size of the new credit forecast is smaller, mainly fell between 6000~7000 billion yuan. According to incomplete statistics, the average value of 671 billion 400 million yuan. Among them, China Merchants Securities (16.610, -0.04, -0.24%), Huatai Securities macro team, Institute of economics, Societe Generale research are expected in December for new credit.
华泰宏观预计，由于历年居民端和企业端的贷款需求都会在年末最后一个月出现小幅下滑，预测12月份的新增贷款在7000亿元左右。
Huatai macro is expected, due to the end of the year the end of the year and the end of the loan demand will be a slight decline in the last month of the end of the year, the forecast of new loans in December about 700 billion yuan.
北大经济研究所表示，预计12月份信贷回落主要有两方面原因：一是年末MPA考核，信贷收缩；二是国庆节后，各地出台房地产限购措施，12月进一步限购限贷，预计居民信贷有所下降。而此前受房地产热销影响，10月、11月居民信贷仍保持较大规模。预计12月份新增贷款7000亿元，环比少增946亿元。
Peking University Institute of economic research said that credit is expected in December fell two main reasons: one is the end of MPA assessment, credit contraction; two is the national day, around the introduction of the purchase of real estate, December further purchase credit limit, the residents are expected to decline in credit. Prior to the impact of real estate sales, in October, in November, residents still maintain a larger scale of credit. Expected in December new loans 700 billion yuan, an increase of less than $94 billion 600 million.
除了季节性的问题和房贷的问题，中金固收研究还表示，12月份整体流动性较为紧张，银行贷款投放可能受到较大影响，预计12月份新增贷款可能比去年同期少，规模可能在6000~7000亿元。
In addition to seasonal problems and mortgage problems in fixed income research also said that in December the overall liquidity is tight, bank loans may be subject to greater impact, new loans in December are expected to be less than the same period last year, the scale may be 6000~7000 billion yuan.
在M2增速方面，多家机构预计12月份M2同比增速将小幅上升至11.5%。北大经济研究所称虽然2016年和2015年12月外汇占款均大幅减少，但外汇占款减少对M2同比增速的影响不大，预计12月M2同比增长11.5%。
In terms of M2 growth, a number of institutions are expected in December M2 growth will rise slightly to 11.5%. Peking University Institute of economic research said that although the 2016 and December 2015 foreign exchange are substantially reduced, but has little effect on the growth rate of foreign exchange decreased compared to the M2, expected December M2 rose 11.5%.
不过，中金固收研究则预计12月份的M2增速将回落至10.5%~11%的区间。中金固收研究表示，预计12月份的M2增速可能明显下滑主要有三个原因：一是人民币贬值预期仍然较强，外汇占款流出量可能仍较大；二是由于前期财政支出较快，财政赤字透支较快，12月财政存款投放量可能明显低于往年；三是银行负债端压缩，银行投同业理财规模也会明显小于前年，导致股权及其他投资科目萎缩。
However, the study is expected to be closed in December M2 growth will fall back to the range of 10.5%~11%. CICC fixed income research said, is expected in December M2 growth is likely to decline significantly for three main reasons: one is the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to remain strong, foreign exchange outflows may still be larger; two is due to the early fiscal expenditure is faster, the fiscal deficit overdraft faster, December financial deposit amount may be significantly lower than in previous years; three is the bank debt at the end of compression, investment bank interbank financing scale will be significantly less than the previous year, lead to equity and other investment subjects atrophy.
去年增量主要在房贷
Last year, mainly in the mortgage incremental
记者统计近年来的新增信贷数据发现，截至目前，2016年比2015年的月均新增信贷高出793亿元。2016年前11个月的新增信贷为11.6059万亿元，而2015年与2014年全年规模分别为11.1099万亿元、9.7832万亿元。
Reporter statistics in recent years, new credit data found that as of now, in 2016 than in the month of 2015 were higher than 79 billion 300 million yuan of new credit. 2016 11 months before the new credit was $11 trillion and 605 billion 900 million, while in 2015 and in 2014 the annual scale was $11 trillion and 109 billion 900 million, $9 trillion and 783 billion 200 million.
具体来看，目前2016年新增信贷最高的月份是1月份，为25100亿元；最低的是7月份的4636亿元，且当月居民中长期贷款新增规模超过了总的人民币新增信贷规模，居民新增房贷成为拉动当月新增信贷的主要力量。联讯证券认为，2015年开始房地产市场变得火爆，主要是大量的信贷资金流入房地产。
Specifically, the 2016 new credit is highest in January, 25100 billion yuan; the lowest is 463 billion 600 million yuan in July, and the residents of new long-term loans exceeded total new yuan loans, new loans become the main driving force of residents in the month of the new credit. NEXIS Securities believes that in 2015 the real estate market began to become popular, mainly to large credit funds into the real estate.
联讯证券表示，信贷资金投向来看，工业和服务业的贷款余额增速都在下降，但房地产和个人购房的贷款余额增速却在迅猛上升。
NEXIS Securities said that the credit funds to invest, industry and services balance of the loan growth rate is declining, but the real estate and personal property loans growth rate was rapid rise.
基于2016年新增信贷以居民个人购房贷款为主，多家机构作出对2016年全年的新增信贷预测，其中，联讯证券预测为12万亿元，华融证券预测为12.2万亿元。对于2017年，联讯证券认为新增信贷应该有所收紧，预计全年为13.2万亿元；申万宏源(6.250,0.00,0.00%)则预测为13.3万亿元。
2016 new credit to individual residents purchase loans mainly based on to make 2016 the year of the new credit forecast institutions which lianxun securities forecast to 12 trillion yuan, Huarong securities forecast of 12 trillion and 200 billion yuan. On 2017, NEXIS Securities believes that new credit should be tightened, the whole year is expected to 13 trillion and 200 billion yuan; Shenwan Hong (6.250,0.00,0.00%) is forecast to be 13 trillion and 300 billion yuan.
此外，申万宏源首席宏观分析师李慧勇表示，2017年的信贷投放主要基于两个方面：一是与经济增长相匹配的货币投放；二是基础设施重大项目的资金需要。他预计，2017年全年的M2增速为13%，信贷规模是13.3万亿。
In addition, Shenwan Hong chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong said that in 2017 the credit based mainly on two aspects: one is matched with the economic growth of the money supply; two is a major infrastructure project funding needs. He expects the 2017 full year M2 growth of 13%, the credit scale is 13 trillion and 300 billion.