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2016 total new credit increment of about 12 trillion mainly in the mortgage

Release time: 2017-01-06
Browsing times: 117

The overall stabilization of the economy in 2016, but downward pressure is still in the beginning of October, the real estate deal to strictly enforce the residents of long-term loans downward trend, but the PPP project will support the implementation of long-term loan demand in enterprises. In addition, affected by regulatory changes, foreign exchange decline or will shrink. 

A number of research institutions predict that in 2016 the new credit is expected to be about 700 billion yuan, the size of the new credit will be around 12 trillion yuan in the year, in addition, is expected in 2017 the size of the new credit in about $13 trillion.

Last month is expected to be about 700 billion

Securities Times reporter survey found that the major research institutions in December last year, the difference between the size of the new credit forecast is smaller, mainly fell between 6000~7000 billion yuan. According to incomplete statistics, the average value of 671 billion 400 million yuan. Among them, China Merchants Securities (16.610, -0.04, -0.24%), Huatai Securities macro team, Institute of economics, Societe Generale research are expected in December for new credit.

Huatai macro is expected, due to the end of the year the end of the year and the end of the loan demand will be a slight decline in the last month of the end of the year, the forecast of new loans in December about 700 billion yuan.

Peking University Institute of economic research said that credit is expected in December fell two main reasons: one is the end of MPA assessment, credit contraction; two is the national day, around the introduction of the purchase of real estate, December further purchase credit limit, the residents are expected to decline in credit. Prior to the impact of real estate sales, in October, in November, residents still maintain a larger scale of credit. Expected in December new loans 700 billion yuan, an increase of less than $94 billion 600 million.

In addition to seasonal problems and mortgage problems in fixed income research also said that in December the overall liquidity is tight, bank loans may be subject to greater impact, new loans in December are expected to be less than the same period last year, the scale may be 6000~7000 billion yuan.

In terms of M2 growth, a number of institutions are expected in December M2 growth will rise slightly to 11.5%. Peking University Institute of economic research said that although the 2016 and December 2015 foreign exchange are substantially reduced, but has little effect on the growth rate of foreign exchange decreased compared to the M2, expected December M2 rose 11.5%.

However, the study is expected to be closed in December M2 growth will fall back to the range of 10.5%~11%. CICC fixed income research said, is expected in December M2 growth is likely to decline significantly for three main reasons: one is the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to remain strong, foreign exchange outflows may still be larger; two is due to the early fiscal expenditure is faster, the fiscal deficit overdraft faster, December financial deposit amount may be significantly lower than in previous years; three is the bank debt at the end of compression, investment bank interbank financing scale will be significantly less than the previous year, lead to equity and other investment subjects atrophy.

Last year, mainly in the mortgage incremental

Reporter statistics in recent years, new credit data found that as of now, in 2016 than in the month of 2015 were higher than 79 billion 300 million yuan of new credit. 2016 11 months before the new credit was $11 trillion and 605 billion 900 million, while in 2015 and in 2014 the annual scale was $11 trillion and 109 billion 900 million, $9 trillion and 783 billion 200 million.

Specifically, the 2016 new credit is highest in January, 25100 billion yuan; the lowest is 463 billion 600 million yuan in July, and the residents of new long-term loans exceeded total new yuan loans, new loans become the main driving force of residents in the month of the new credit. NEXIS Securities believes that in 2015 the real estate market began to become popular, mainly to large credit funds into the real estate.

NEXIS Securities said that the credit funds to invest, industry and services balance of the loan growth rate is declining, but the real estate and personal property loans growth rate was rapid rise.

2016 new credit to individual residents purchase loans mainly based on to make 2016 the year of the new credit forecast institutions which lianxun securities forecast to 12 trillion yuan, Huarong securities forecast of 12 trillion and 200 billion yuan. On 2017, NEXIS Securities believes that new credit should be tightened, the whole year is expected to 13 trillion and 200 billion yuan; Shenwan Hong (6.250,0.00,0.00%) is forecast to be 13 trillion and 300 billion yuan.

In addition, Shenwan Hong chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong said that in 2017 the credit based mainly on two aspects: one is matched with the economic growth of the money supply; two is a major infrastructure project funding needs. He expects the 2017 full year M2 growth of 13%, the credit scale is 13 trillion and 300 billion.


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