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After the surge in bad gathered in Guangdong steel prices fell

Release time: 2016-12-15
Browsing times: 116

Before I wrote an article about Guangdong steel price highs of the article, mentioned that if the central environmental protection group arrived in Guangzhou, Guangzhou steel prices have continued to rise in power, now looking back, indeed, since November 28th the central environmental inspection teams stationed in Guangdong, Guangdong construction steel market prices have been strong run; according to the latest news Guangdong province has received a total of the Central Environmental Protection Inspectorate to do 1667 cases, filing penalties 852, criminal detention of 54 people, all of a sudden, Guangdong market jittery market bullish sentiment. On Friday the Tangshan area environmental protection "under heavy attack, Guangdong construction steel market prices are skyrocketing prices, the details are as follows:

First, the central environmental inspection teams stationed in steel prices rose significantly


Table: Southern China regional private steel mills price adjustment (data source: steel business department of Southern China)

Can be seen from the table, since the central environmental groups of inspectors stationed in Guangdong province in November 30th, because futures limit the impact of private steel mills factory executive price fell slightly, the rest of the time showed a rising trend, especially in since December 7th has been substantial rising trend; on the weekend, in Tangshan intermediate frequency furnace "across the board" stimulated by the news, the environmental influence degree unprecedented enlarged, the Southern China region of steel mills factory price two days on the weekend or at 200-270 yuan / ton. Monday opened a sharp rise in futures, steel mills continue to push up, the market price is now a rare consecutive rally. According to my network monitoring, since 28, Southern China area major private mills factory raised the execution price of 400-600 yuan / ton, the first steel market prices over 3900 yuan / ton, second tier steel market transaction price 3870 yuan / ton, three wire steel market prices 3830-3890 yuan / ton, the price of three line steel counter part the second super steel price.

Overwhelmed by rising prices, environmental protection role contributed, on Friday came to Tangshan intermediate frequency furnace across the board to the steel city news, continue to rise in the fire to add firewood, futures Monday in Guangdong province environmental protection power level, coupled with the role of the inspection team, Southern China area steel steel factory price continued to soar. A trader said, the market for many years no steel city this year, after a few years ago xiongtu long, this wave of price hikes to boost market confidence and strength obviously. In the sharp rise in prices, steel mills and market transactions? Price increases and can continue? Here we from the two aspects of the transaction and inventory one or two.

Two, a slight increase in the amount of steel from the market turnover is weakness


Figure 1: Southern China region of the main steel construction steel construction steel output (data source: steel link data)

From the Southern China region of the main steel construction steel sales data monitoring network, environmental inspection teams stationed in Southern China area, main steel construction steel sales showing a growth trend, from the comparison of two weeks after the central environmental protection group stationed in Southern China area data, main mills week sales growth of 8 thousand and 200 tons, the growth trend is not obvious. Steel construction steel sales increased slightly, then the market traders turnover situation and how?


Figure two: Guangzhou market volume trend of construction steel products (data source: Steel Union data)

According to my network monitoring for Guangzhou construction steel market volume monitoring data show: since the end of November, Guangdong construction steel market turnover is showing a rising trend in short-term, but last week the price soared up the market demand is not timely, 12 Guangdong construction steel market trading volume than the previous day was down 4500 tons, a decline of 25%, market the transaction is now tired.

Three, social inventory increased over the same period last year, the arrival of North material is expected to increase

According to my network of the same caliber statistics, the mainstream of Guangzhou building materials warehouse (Jin Bocang, building materials warehouse, warehouse, warehouse, Haifu fish beads, warehouse, Yoshiyama Kura Dong Sha bin, bin, Tang Gecang, Jiang Yuancang, He Jian bin, Yu Bin, Locke Xingang bin) 9, steel stocks 272 thousand tons, compared with last week increased by 21 thousand tons; wire 192 thousand tons, 27 thousand tons more than last year; and the mainstream of Guangzhou building materials warehouse steel stocks 273 thousand tons, 174 thousand tons of wire. Guangzhou market continued to rebound in the stock market, and the total inventory increased over the same period last year.

Look at the material delivery and delivery plan North: owing to the port and shipping, delivery delay phenomenon more, the volume of material, the North Dongcai were increased in early stage, according to incomplete statistics, Guangdong province area of November volume of 592 thousand tons of building materials. In addition, in December the north and East China steel mills planned shipments in November and planned delivery gap is not, but taking into account the issue of shipping delays, the actual amount is expected to arrive or a slight increase over the previous month.

Four, summary

On the whole, this wave of Guangdong steel prices pushed up environmental policy can not be no, but the lack of basic support for the surge in the traditional off-season. Steel prices in the face of the policy of promoting the role of rose, we should pay more attention to the fundamentals of the situation from the Guangdong market turnover situation, although the mills are short-term transactions unpopular, but the market turnover is not obvious peatlands, at the same time, the December north south is expected to increase the total material, Guangdong market stocks continue to rebound is undoubtedly bad news therefore, at the market merchants pocket for security, do not blindly chasing the high, beware of sudden price callback.


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